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I agree with LiberalLo. This sounds like more mass hysteria like the "population bomb" theory rammed down our throats back in the 70's.

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Greetings B--nice to see another grown-up on this thread.

Isn't it great how old tried-and-true scare tactics are revived every generation to frighten a fresh crop of gullible reactionaries! It's kind of like women's fashion. Sooner or later it all comes back in style!!!

Here's to ya, B.

-LibLob

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there are some depletion predictions that have been right: animal extinctions. So I do feel that some of these predictions can be right.

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Narayan,

First of all, we're not talking about animal extinctions. Without getting too far off topic, animal extinctions are much easier to predict because data points are extremely reliable. Data on total oil reserves, on the other hand, is incredibly unreliable.

Secondly, just because someone makes a prediction that comes true, it does not mean they have superior predictive ability. Every day, psychics predict ridiculous crap, and guess what? Some of their predictions occasionally are correct. Why? Because of the law of large numbers--make enough predictions, and sooner or later one will be correct. You can also take that one step further: Make enough outlandish predictions, and one will be right that attracts so much attention, it makes everyone forget all the other wrong predictions and believe you have psychic powers.

This works for "respected" professionals, too. Take Abbey Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs' market guru. She correctly predicted the late '90s bull market in technology stock, but did she tell anyone to sell when the bubble burst in March 2000? No. How about Bob Prechter? He became a stock market guru in the 1980's when he predicted the Dow Jones Industrial Average would trend upward (after a sharp decline in 1984) until its peak in October 1987. He was so highly regarded, he became a regular guest on Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser despite the show's clear preference for fundamental analysts.

Unfortunately, Bob later predicted the Dow would fall to 400. Instead, it rose above 10,000 and poor Bob drifted back into obscurity.

My point is that people who have correctly predicted important events in the past may have done nothing more than be lucky. Narayan, even a broken watch correctly tells the time twice a day.

Third, legitimizing forecasts of extraordinarily difficult-to-predict events like global oil depletion by claiming a "consensus" forecast is also treacherous, because forecasters are afraid to stray too far from a median forecast (i.e., "groupthink"), or they follow a leader whose views have popular appeal (like Hubbert's).

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I don't think that it's just anti-pollution people worrying about fossil fuels.

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Agreed. But anti-pollution people DO have a vested interest in promoting forecasts of imminent oil depletion--however unreasonable they may be--because such predictions support their agenda.

Finally, I may need to clarify one point: After writing all of this, I realize that you may have misunderstood when you quoted my sentence about "all depletion predictions" being wrong.

I was specifically referring to global oil depletion predictions. All predictions of depletion or declining production targeted to occur in the past have been wrong because neither global depletion nor declining global production has yet happened.

Sorry for any confusion, Narayan.