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Oddly enough, oil has been pretty stable at $58-61 for quite a while now. One more big draw Wednesday morning might finally knock it loose.

I've been predicting energy shortage since 2002. (Made a lot of money that way last year, not so much so far this one.) The market is getting tighter, as production seems to be peaking & demand still rising.

BUT

By 2008 there is a high chance that a major recession hits, so it's not inevitable that we be at $90. $90 is a good low to mid-range guess; there are a lot of scenarios that blow right past $100 & into panic time.

It sounds like you've gone from living at 30 times the sustainable rate to about 18. Pretty good; but long term (maybe 10 years) the whole private car/big house model will start breaking down.

I get most of my oil stories from

www.theoildrum.com/

&

p088.ezboard.com/fdownstreamventurespetroleummarkets

You can test out your own sustainability number at www.earthday.net/footprint/index.asp

It could be way off, but its still kind of fun.

The oil market has become more seasonal as its gotten tighter.

It's Spring, & sure enough, gasoline is rising again. Wholesale hit $2.07 today, which translates to $2.80 retail in a few weeks.

Last year we hit $3 with no storms, no new wars, & no major outages. This year, $4 looks easily doable.