And while you're at it, plug the following into Google:
Max Planck Institute in Gottingen cosmic solar warming
Lots to see.
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aspong |
Re: thinking..... | ||
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Here's a beauty!
And while you're at it, plug the following into Google: Max Planck Institute in Gottingen cosmic solar warming Lots to see. |
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Manruss |
Re: Impossible | ||
Quote: And, of course, by open-minded, you mean agreeing with you. No thanks, I prefer to stick with the science, as closed minded as that may be. |
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aspong |
Re: Impossible | ||
Quote: Precisely the same answer I would have given a few weeks ago. And that's why it was science that convinced me otherwise. You say you prefer to stick with the science, then why not see the scientific evidence? See the doco and then tell me you are unmoved. I only watched it to prove people wrong because I was just as convinced as you are. When another guy at lrots saw the doco before me and then change his whole view, I could not believe he could do such a thing. You believe science? Good. Watch the doco. |
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snakeyd |
Re: Impossible | ||
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I saw the documentary and it was convincing. I have always tried to keep an open mind but I believe the main driver to GW is the sun. Also some more climatologists of high stature are coming out of the woodwork and are trying to calm the hysteria.
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Birthmark |
Re: thinking..... | ||
Quote: Is it? Then three questions: 1. Is CO2 a greenhouse gas? 2. Is there more CO2 in the atmosphere today than there was 200 years ago? 3. If there is, where did it come from? If not, are you on Earth? |
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Manruss |
Re: thinking..... | ||
Quote: Or, you could just save your time as that "documentary," being little more than a greatest hits collection of longstanding arguments against anthropogenic global warming, has already been thoroughly debunked. Even Carl Wunsch, one of the scientists used in the film, has since publically claimed that the documentary is misleading and that they edited his testimony in such a way that he appears to be making claims that he in reality does not endorse. Quote: I admit, that would seem very persuasive to someone who did not understand the feedback relationship that has existed between warming and greenhouse gases in the Earth's history. However, that relationship, which sometimes has rises in temperature preceding CO2 levels, in no way belies the fact that current rises in global temperature are caused by manmade emissions, or for that matter, that the rising temperatures won't similarly add to the CO2 we are dumping into the atmosphere, thereby compounding the problem. To quote the linked article: Quote: Quote: This again is analysis which on its face seems persuasive only if one completely ignores the more complicated scientific reality of the situation. The truth is that, according to NASA and most other scientists, Mars' warming is almost certainly the result of a change in albedo (the ability of a planet's surface to reflect sunlight) caused by dust storms and not an increase in solar radiation. besides, if an increase in solar radiation were responsible for the warming, one would expect to find it not only on Earth and Mars, but on every planet in the solar system and at rates consistent with the current rate of warming on Earth, none of which is the case. Again, it's not that the claims of the producers are factually incorrect, per se (though some may be), it's that they lack the scientific background to adequately interpret them, preferring to instead use a layman's analysis of these facts which frequently leads them to seemingly sensible but nonetheless wrong conclusions. Unfortunately, there's just no substitute for the scientific peer review process. |
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vdiamond |
Re: thinking..... | ||
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How do we explain the Ice Age scare of the 70's?
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Manruss |
Re: thinking..... | ||
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The "Ice Age scare," refers to a short term period of global cooling, lasting 30 years or so, contained within a much longer phenomen of global warming going back centuries. A 30 year dip in temperature doesn't mean that global warming isn't happening any more than a quarterly dip in the stock price doesn't mean that investing in Microsoft in the 80s was a bad idea.
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vdiamond |
Re: thinking..... | ||
Quote: When is this supposed to occur? |
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Birthmark |
Re: thinking..... | ||
Quote: Oh, that's easy. There was no such scare among scientists. Now, the media...well, who knows what those clowns are gonna say, or why. |
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Manruss |
Re: thinking..... | ||
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It did occur from about 1945 to 1975. Then the temperature started rising again. Here's a chart to demonstrate the trend of recorded temperatures:
![]() Some people were afraid that the trend would continue and that temperatures would just keep cooling until we reached another ice age, although most members of the scientific community understood that ice ages happen at regular intervals. Here's a more authoritative article on the myth of "global cooling," if you're interested. |
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Birthmark |
Re: thinking..... | ||
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I know full well that there was cooling, but there was never an "Ice Age" scare among scientists. Your link makes that abundantly clear. No reputable scientist would take one paper with limited data and extrapolate that to some long-term global trend. And none did. It is only the anti-GWers who tell this story.
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Manruss |
Re: thinking..... | ||
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Hey, I'm on your side. My post was in response to VDiamond.
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Birthmark |
Re: thinking..... | ||
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No, I'm on *your* side.
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not2serious |
Re: thinking..... | ||
Quote: And we have been on mars too, Saturn too? According to probes, they are undergoing global warming too. We had 5 ice ages recently, 4 of them man was not around. And yet strangly, these same scientist cannot tell us what caused even one of them. And man was not a factor in the last one. And why is florida still above water? With all this melting they are filling the news media with, the oceans should have risen 2' by now. Hey, bet you were the first to believe that there were WMDs in Iraq too! I argued with 100's of people that they were no WMDs, and I was right. Simple logic tells me they do not have enough information to tell us WHAT is causing global warming, but it is a natural cycle. T barnum was right, you and manruss must have been born a minute apart. Allan |
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aspong |
Re: thinking..... | ||
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No Manruss, it has not been thoroughly debunked. Just because it has its critics doesn't mean it has been debunked, let alone thoroughly. And as more scientists are coming out to argue against GW's popular science, more real science will be brought to bear on it.
Let me start with Svensmarks and Cosmic rays. For those not in the know, it is suggested that cosmic rays assist cloud formation. During high solar activity cosmic rays are less effective in this regard, leading to decreased low cloud cover, leading to more than usual warming. Thats the simple explanation. I could go more detailed if you want, but better to read one of the more recent extracts for an accurate picture of whats being said. Svensmarks and his team at the Danish National Space Center have been working on cosmic ray theories for a few years. Most of the criticism Ive read are targeted at Svensmarks 2004 theoretical work on this and largely dismissed the theory as either wrong or of negligible effect. Most commentators Ive read are not current on this. It has been largely left to the 2004 critique whereas their 2006 published experimental data has been either ignored or the critics are unaware. I did find one critic, but while he turns up his nose at the findings, he also uses statements like in fact could have in his arguments to disprove Svensmarks. As it stands, the author (Gavin) makes in part a reasonable case for further study on the issue, but his article could by no means be considered a total debunking of it. Somewhat independently, heres a link to another scientist who has produced a report demonstrating evidence for Svensmarks theory. The whole thrust of this is not that this is conclusively proven, but that it has certainly not been conclusively disproved as you might prefer us all to think. Quote: Not that they can be sure about every other planet (or moon) in the solar system, but there is evidence for global warming on Mars, Pluto, Titan, Saturn. CO2 Lag. The readings regarding CO2 lag suggest a couple of things. Firstly I was amused to read that your critics said that while they agreed that the lag was generally around 800 years, if you overlay the full 400/800 kyr of ice core record, you can't even see the lag because its so small. So what!? Just because its hard to see detail over the full span of time doesnt mean that 800 years of lag is of no consequence. Reading further, and into the links, its suggested that the lag starts the CO2 production, but then the CO2 production feeds back to keep the warming happening. The correlation is 800 years where warming kick-starts the CO2 production and then 4200 years where CO2 causes the warming. But if that were true, the graph would predominantly show CO2 in the lead by a factor of 42/8, which it simply doesnt. Not even close. The arguments include statements such as if we assume that the average of current climate models is right, and From studying all the available data (not just ice cores), the probable sequence of events at a termination goes something like this. No definites here, but words like this lead to conclusions that CO2 is definitely the cause of GW. Popular science compiles a lot of assumptions and probables and comes out saying that CO2 is definitely the cause. John T. Houghton, was co-chair of the IPCC Scientific Assessment working group. He acknowledges that ice core samples show CO2 driven by temperature, but then he writes "I often show that diagram in my lectures on climate change but always make the point that it gives no proof of global warming due to increased carbon dioxide." So if it isnt proof, then why were we shown it as proof? Whatever the evidence, we can go back and forth throwing links and quotes at the wall, but the evidence is, that the evidence is very much inconclusive. You can be unscientificly closed minded if you like, that's your choice. Quote: 1. Yes, apparently it is. Albeit a minor GHG, some 0.03% or some such. 2. I don't recall the answer to your second question right at this moment (hey, I'm at least honest about it), but proponents of the "other" theory suggest that elevations in CO2 do not so much cause GW, but are historically more the result of warming. i.e. CO2 follows warming, not the other way around. 3. Where did it come from? Now that's a smart question. A good one to ask. Sure, man outputs CO2, but so does vegetation as it rots, so does volcanic activity, so do the ocean when they warm. Man-made production of CO2 is rather minor compared to the amount the earth produces, and that's a minor addition to a very minor percentage of atmospheric CO2. Multiply two minors and you get a miniscule. The greatest GHG is apparently water vapour. It has the greatest effect on reflecting and trapping heat. Checkout "global dimming" to see just how significant water vapour can be. Keep asking such questions Birthmark. It's when you stop asking questions that you find yourself being unscientific. |
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Manruss |
Re: thinking..... | ||
Quote: It's not just critics who say they're off-base, but some of the very people they used to lay out their science, too. And I mean "science" in the loosest possible sense of the word. This was a work of serious science in much the same way that M******horpe's Piss Christ was a serious work of theology. The first nine minutes of the documentary is little more than five second soundbites of people claiming global warming is bunk. There's hardly a fact to be found anywhere. Although it was amusing how they cut to footage of hippies and protestors carrying Soviet flags whenever they referred to the "global warming movement." This documentary has been debunked, not because some people disagree with them, but because under closer scrutiny it becomes blatantly clear that they do not understand the very basics of their claims. Either that, or they do understand and are being intentionally misleading. A lot of people don't believe in anthropogenic global warming, but nobody that I'm aware of disputes the existence of feedback loops between global temperature and CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Whatever the cause, when the Earth gets warmer, it effects the level of CO2 in the air and when there's more CO2 in the air it effects the level of warming. So using the fact that at some points in the Earth's history a rise in temperature precedes a rise in CO2 levels as part of an argument to prove that CO2 levels are not causing global warming demonstrates either an ignorance of the feedback relationship or a willful omission of it. Either way, the documentary's argument is debunked. Quote: Sure, but there's no evidence to suggest that on the planets and moons on which there are warming that the warming is caused by the same source that is causing warming on Earth. In fact, what evidence there is strongly suggests that these places are warming for different reasons.: Quote: In fact, given the fact that there are eight planets and dozens of moons in our solar system, all with their own unique orbital patterns, climate and geothermal fluxuations, it would be quite odd if there weren't some other planets or moons that weren't undergoing a period of warming at the same time as the Earth, would it not? So to suggest, as the documentary does, that this demonstrates a common, solar-system wide cause for the warming on Earth is misleading at best. Again, either they are ignorant of what their facts mean or they are being disingenuous. Quote: Being able to match link for link does not mean that the evidence for both sides is comparable, nor does it mean that there is any real dispute. I can match you link for link with people claiming that 9/11 was orchestrated by the Illuminati and their neo-con servants. That doesn't make what happened on 9/11 "inconclusive." What separates one argument from another is not the quantity of people advocating it, but the quality of the argument itself. You may choose to plant the flag of your belief on the first piece of yellow journalism that parades as a scientific documentary, but I'm still waiting for global warming deniers to get their act together enough to submit ONE article that can survive the scientific peer review process. |
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Luck of the Draw |
thinking | ||
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Aspong....thank you for the links. Interesting reading. In all honesty, this Milloy character seems to talk out of both sides of his mouth (IMO) And he seems to be a megaphone for the oil companies.....
That same year, Exxon participated in a meeting at the American Petroleum Institute that, according to a subsequently leaked memo of the proceedings, called for companies to provide "logistical and moral support" to dissenters from the growing scientific consensus regarding the human causes of global warming, "thereby raising questions about and undercutting the 'prevailing scientific wisdom'." www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=36063 also.... "Sure, man outputs CO2, but so does vegetation as it rots, so does volcanic activity, so do the ocean when they warm. Man-made production of CO2 is rather minor compared to the amount the earth produces, and that's a minor addition to a very minor percentage of atmospheric? How do you know this for sure? What's to say that the 2% increase mentioned, is the breaking point/that which tips the balance/scale? |
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aspong |
Re: thinking..... | ||
Quote: First. Out of at least 9 contributors, Carl Wunsch disagrees with the hypothesis of the film and Eigil Friis-Christensen disagrees with its accuracy. As for the way the film is portrayed, it was made by someone similarly skilled as those who made Al Gore's film. But rather than highlight the dramatic and "for effect" pieces in Gore's film instead the GW movement holds it symbolicly high. Why are Gore's inaccurate dramatizations given a pass? I wonder. Quote:What a telling comment that is. You obviously haven't watched it. But because Gore's dramatization agrees with your stance, you probably watched that one. Quote: Scrutiny which has been answered. But of course, you only see the criticisms, not the answers, because the criticism help maintain your belief. I've already outlined a couple of answers, such as the critics using Svensmarks 2004 theoreticals rather than his 2006 experimental evidence. Such as Harrison's independant corroboration of Svensmarks theories. I could have gone to town and given you a very long answer indeed. Quote: Red herring. It's not the feedback loops that are being questioned. Just as global warming isn't in question. It's the nature of their effect etc that's being questioned, not their existence. Quote: At some points in history? Have you even seen the graph's over time? In most instances, when the earth warms, CO2 rises. When the earth cools, CO2 drops. 4200 years theory would mean that when the earth cooled, it would take 4200 years for a corresonding drop in CO2. There may be evidence for this on the whole graph, but I haven't seen it. What I have seen is CO2 following the warming and cooling fairly consistently. At some points? Quote: You wish.... Quote: Why is it that when you want to improve your case, you call theory evidence? Quote: Sunlight is not the only thing which comes from the Sun. There are many other things which the Sun emits which vary in amount and which vary in effect. If sunlight is their only measure, then they're only telling part of the story. We know ourselves what solar storms do to our planet. Hell, the Canadian grid was knocked off line a couple of years ago because of it. Quote: Stick to the argument. Using such a strong emotive as 9/11 is not comparing apples with oranges. But then again, the whole GW thing runs on emotives. |
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aspong |
Re: thinking | ||
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LotD,
Your words are ALL arguments I've used before, when I was on the other side of the fence. Yes, including the Exxon connection and the like. Yes, including the straw that broke the camel's back analogy. Used 'em, know them well. Just ask UT. He isn't fond of me for those very arguments I was using (amongst others). I was steadfastly firm on the IPCC view of GW. Knowledge is the key. Watch the film! Sure, it's a doco made by a dramatist non-scientist. I watched it and made copious notes on its failings, of which it has many. I knew that from my first viewing of it. I rewound several times to make sure I accurately noted its failings. But I did watch it and I didn't toss out the baby with the bathwater. Most people prefer to take the easy way out and read the reviews and base their judgement on those. Of course the dominant reviews will attempt to debunk - because the dominant belief is being threatened. Many won't even watch it because they've made up their minds. |
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